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- Unhosted Weekly #47 - September 1st
Unhosted Weekly #47 - September 1st
Will BTC Finally Surf the Wave? 🌊
🚀 If BTC plays the 2015–2018 script, and this bottom holds, we’re staring at $256K by Dec 3, 2025
🚀 $ETH is still clocking its strongest Q3 on record
📈 Metaplanet rounded its bitcoin balance to 20,000 BTC
🇺🇸 The U.S. leads the world in the number of entities holding $BTC
🦅 USD1 by @worldlibertyfi just launched on Solana
📊 River pulled together a quick snapshot of how major figures in finance and politics have shifted their stance on Bitcoin over time
Bitcoin’s “Line in the Sand” Week
🟠 How to trade the 110k retest without losing discipline.
TL;DR — One-Screen Playbook
Now | Why it matters | Action |
|---|---|---|
Pullback to 107–108k (prior breakout). | Textbook “resistance → support” retest. | Ladder bids 112k → 110k. Core swing sizing (weeks). |
Weekly close below 104k. | Flips weekly trend (Money Line) to bearish. | Rotate risk-off: close leverage, trim illiquid alts, raise cash. |
50-week MA. | Final bull-trend guardrail. | If lost, treat bounces as sells until reclaimed. |
BTC–M2 divergence wide. | Liquidity suggests higher; price lagging. | Keep BTC-heavy core; add on fear, not FOMO. |
1) Breakout Retest = Constructive Setup
Structure: multi-month range break → pullback → retest at 108k-110k.
Confirmation: 2–3 daily closes back above 110–112k puts 120k next.
Trade plan: entries 109k / 108k / 107k (⅓ each).
Invalidation: daily close <106k; cycle caution if weekly <104k.
Targets: 138k first, 150k stretch.
Mode: swing, not scalp or high leverage.
2) Bearish Contingency (pre-planned)
If weekly <104k: switch to risk-off, de-lever, raise dry powder.
Next line: 50-week MA; if broken, treat rallies as distribution until reclaimed.
Objective: protect capital to participate in the next leg.
3) Why Bias Remains Up
Retest landed precisely at prior resistance → support.
Seasonality drift: recent pain shifted to August; September packs catalysts.
Liquidity tailwind: BTC still lags the M2 slope; gap closures are typically fast.
4) Portfolio Guardrails
≥50% BTC core while 110k is contested.
20% majors (ETH/SOL/L1 beta).
≤20% venture/memes only with zero-to-one risk tolerance.
10% tools/yield (basis/grid) sized small.
5) Execution Checklist
Ladder bids 108k → 110k.
Hard stop if daily <105k; cycle caution if weekly <104k.
Take-profit ladder: 138k / 145k / 150k.
Avoid new leverage until 110–112k acts as support.
Revoke stale approvals; hardware-sign large transfers.
6) Quick Notes
“September is usually red” → seasonality shifts; trade levels, not lore.
Choppy outcome → BTC-heavy core with clear invalidation outperforms guesswork.
Bottom Line
A standard breakout-retest at 110k is in play. Respect the level: buy the fear box, trail into strength, and keep the eject handle at 104k weekly. Executed cleanly, the setup targets 145–150k without unnecessary heroics. 🚀
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