Unhosted Weekly #55 - October 27th

Up only—until it isn’t 🚀

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💥 $330M wiped in 12 hours — $254M of it from shorters getting roasted

🇺🇸 The U.S. leads the pack with 122 entities holding $BTC, per Bitcoin Treasuries

💰 Today, that same Bitcoin stack is worth a massive $1.56B.

🎂 Aave turns 5 this December — and it’s already processed a staggering $3T+ in deposits since launch

📉 Ecoinometrics researchers say Bitcoin’s undervalued by 31% — thanks to market games from the big players

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Bitcoin Weekly: Trend Flip, Thin Ice, Clear Plan 🚦

Bitcoin finally did the one thing that mattered on the daily chart: it flipped the Money Line to bullish on Friday and price catapulted. That puts BTC bullish on the daily and weekly at the same time. Bulls have the ball. Now they need yards.

Market Snapshot 🧭

  • BTC: ~$116K, daily & weekly uptrend intact.

  • Primary objective: Reclaim/close above $120–126K 🧱 → real breakout.

  • Wiggle room: CME gap below; pullbacks toward $111K can happen without killing the daily trend.

Why This Flip Matters ✅

We waited for a confirmed daily trend before pressing longs—because that’s how you get asymmetric R/R.
Typical daily trends last 5–20 sessions; we’re ~Day 4.
Weekly structure = constructive → Q4 “Santa” window is open 🎅 …but late-cycle risk is real.

Levels That Matter 📏

  • $120–126K: Decision box. ✅ accept above → momentum; ❌ reject → heavy tape risk.

  • $111K: Healthy dip zone while daily stays bullish.

  • $96K (weekly): Line in the sand. Lose it → cycle likely topped.

News to Trade, Not to Chase 🔔

  • Rates/QT: If Wednesday’s Fed messaging hints at QT end or a friendlier path, the tape must respond (push through $120K quickly).

    • Bullish news + no breakout = late-cycle heaviness → tighten risk.

  • Liquidity impulse (EU/US): Ongoing EU and US liquidity adds are tailwinds, but price has to confirm. React to levels, not headlines.

  • Treasury/Corporate adoption: Narrative booster.

Alt Radar 🔎

Principle: Rotate only after BTC daily ≥ $120K (Trigger B) or weekly ≥ $127–130K. Keep alt exposure ≤30% of crypto NAV until weekly ATH break.

A) Momentum Leaders (strongest tapes)

  • ZEC: Remarkably persistent weekly uptrend.

    • Entry: Retests that hold prior breakouts on rising volume.

    • Risk: 8–12% stops; time-stop if no HH after 5–7 sessions.

    • Exit: Scale 25–40% on +25–40% moves; keep a runner while BTC is in discovery.

  • BNB: Robust weekly structure.

    • Entry: Break above recent swing highs with volume.

    • Invalidation: Lose the weekly money-line → trim back to core.

B) Perp-DEX Beta (venue tokens)

  • Beneficiaries of volatility & OI (e.g., HLP/Aster—use your watchlist).

    • Trigger: Daily HH + rising venue OI; funding normalizes.

    • Risk: 10–15% stops, no averaging down.

C) SOL Rotation (only if data flips)

  • Trigger: 3 consecutive sessions of SOL outpacing BNB/Tron in fees + active users.

  • Basket (small weights each): SOL / BONK / JUP or PUMP on daily HH + volume.

  • Invalidation: Usage slips back → cut to SOL core only.

  • SUI / ADA (sideways bulls): Okay trend, weak velocity. Q4 demands trend + speed.

Bottom Line 🧩

BTC flipped the daily and holds the weekly. That’s your green light—but we’re driving late at night on a narrow road.
Trade the trend, respect the levels, and keep your airbags armed (cash + stops). If we accept above ATHs, enjoy the melt. If not—you’ll be grateful you planned for gravity.

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