🔵 Blue Monday …

💣 Over $242M in long positions got wiped out in just 4 hours 

💵 Stablecoin supply on Ethereum just crossed $184B — that’s +$100B since January 2024

📊 $BTC needs to pump over 22% to flip Amazon

🎰 Romania bans Polymarket 

Bitcoin at 107K: 3 Strikes That Decide the Cycle

Bitcoin is bleeding lower again.

We’re sitting around $107K, daily trend has flipped bearish, and the question on everyone’s mind is simple:

1. The Line in the Sand: The “Liquidation Day” Low

First key level:
👉 The low from the big liquidation day on the 10th.

That massive wick created a structural low on the chart. Right now, price is sliding back toward it.

• If Bitcoin holds that low and bounces:

  • That wick becomes legit support.

  • On the short timeframes (daily) it shows buyers are still alive.

• If Bitcoin breaks below it:

  • It’s no bueno.

  • The next magnet is $100K psychologically and technically.

2. The 50-Week Moving Average: The First Big Strike

Below that liquidation low sits another critical line:

👉 The 50-week moving average (often drawn as a yellow curve on charts).

Historically:

• When BTC holds above the 50W MA → bull market structure intact.

• When BTC starts closing weekly candles below it → you’re flirting with a full-blown bear market.

That’s exactly what happened in previous cycles:
once we lived below the 50W MA for a while, it wasn’t a “dip” anymore — it was the start of the downtrend.

3. The Final Boss: 96K and the Weekly Bear Flip

If the 50W MA is Strike 2, then $96K is Strike 3.

Why? Because that’s roughly where the weekly “money line” (trend filter) would flip bearish.

• Above 96K on weekly closes:

  • Big-picture trend is still technically bullish.

  • Corrections are brutal, but still within a bull market framework.

• Below 96K with a weekly bear flip:

  • That’s when you stop saying “bull market dip” and start saying “bear market until proven otherwise.”

4. “Three Strikes and You’re Out” – The Simple Framework

Let’s summarize the three major tests on high timeframes:

1. Test 1 – Current area (~107K–liquidation low):

   • Must hold the prior breakout zone / recent highs.

2. Test 2 – 50-week moving average (~100K zone):

   • Must hold this as macro support.

3. Test 3 – 96K (weekly bear flip):

   • Break and close below → cycle likely over.

You don’t have to guess which one breaks.
You just need a plan for each.

5. November Seasonality: Nice to Have, Not a Plan

Everyone loves the “Uptober / Moonvember” memes.

Historically, November has indeed often been strong:

• +33% last year

• +42% in 2020

• +53% in 2017

• +400% in 2013

But there’s a catch:

October just closed around –3.69%. So yes, seasonality is real — but it’s not a law of physics.

6. Could We Still Get a Q4 Rotation into Bitcoin?

There is a reasonable bullish narrative:

• NVIDIA is sitting around a $5T valuation.

• Bitcoin is ~$2T.

• Retail is obsessed with AI stocks, while Bitcoin is underowned relative to its role as a global monetary network.

The setup for a rotation trade is there:

• AI / tech stocks euphoric

• Gold stable

• BTC lagging relative to its potential

7. Big Picture: Bitcoin Still Wins, But You Need to Survive

Zoom all the way out and the story doesn’t change:

• Governments are experimenting with things like:

  • Exit taxes (UK considering 20% on unrealized gains if you leave).

  • CBDCs with hard caps (EU talking about a €3,000 limit per person).

  • Increasing control over property & capital flows.

• At the same time, Bitcoin:

  • Has no 3K cap

  • Doesn’t care where you move

  • Doesn’t shut down

  • Isn’t someone else’s liability

Long-term, Bitcoin is still the exit door from all this madness.

But between here and that endgame, there are cycles, blow-offs, bears, fakeouts and flushes.

Your job is simple:

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