📉 Crypto sentiment hit a new record low on CMC’s Fear and Greed Index

🏃‍♂️165K $BTC vanished from Coinbase over the weekend, reason unknown — last time we saw an outflow like this was right after the FTX collapse when Bitcoin sat at $16K

⚡ Solana just dropped SIMD-0411 — a proposal to double the inflation decay from 15% → 30%, pushing SOL to 1.5% inflation by 2029 instead of 2032

🇨🇳 China quietly ramps up Bitcoin mining again — now contributing ~14% of global hashrate

📈 Bitcoin’s grip tightened again — dominance ripped past 60% in early November and is now chilling around 59% as the market flees to safety

📉 Market Reality Check

Bitcoin sits around 86.8k and keeps sliding. Last week it was near 80k, now it’s slightly higher, but the chart doesn’t show strength. The big question everyone asks is simple: is this a real recovery, or another trap?

Short answer: it’s a bounce in a bearish trend until it proves otherwise.

🐱 Dead Cat Dynamics

In a downtrend, every bounce is a dead cat bounce until the trend flips. Bitcoin only regains bullish structure above the bear-flip level at 116k.
If it pushes above that, great. If not, it’s just noise.

A revisit of the 50-week EMA near 102k is the most likely scenario. That level has acted as support for years. Downtrend makes it more likely we tag it and get rejected on first contact.

🧊 ETF Flows Cool, But Not Dead

Recent ETF flows finally showed a small inflow. That’s one of the few green shoots. Sustained inflows are critical because corporate buyers like MicroStrategy are under pressure.

⚔️ TradFi vs Crypto: The MSCI Problem

There’s fear that companies with more than 45 percent of their balance sheet in crypto may be ejected from major indexes like MSCI.
The deadline for the decision is January 15, 2026.

This explains why MicroStrategy stock is dumping harder than Bitcoin. TradFi allocators don’t want exposure to something that may get delisted. Whether you call it an attack or just bureaucracy, the outcome is the same: selling pressure.

📉 Ignore the Headlines

Everyone keeps asking who is selling. Doesn’t matter.
Price shows someone is.
This is why traders avoid headlines. Institutions regularly talk bullish on TV while quietly unloading on the chart.

🏦 Macro Tailwinds Coming Later

Trump is accumulating bonds heavily, which signals expectations of lower interest rates.
Lower rates are rocket fuel for risk assets but that takes time.

Two dates matter:

• New Fed chair arrives in May

• Typical macro bottoming window in October next year

Money injections take quarters to work. Based on heatmap signals, late 2026 looks like the period when things will finally flip into full risk-on.

💰 Why Bear Markets Are Good

Nobody likes hearing “bear trend,” but bear markets are where high-conviction trades exist. The last year of sideways 100k chop offered very few opportunities. A trending market, even a downtrend, is easier to trade.

🔎 Don’t Trust Onchain Signals

On-chain analysis is fun but often useless in real trading. Wallet migrations and internal exchange moves break assumptions.
Better tools:

• price action

• trend structure

• positioning of profitable traders (like Hyperliquid data)

Following actual traders beats reading tea leaves from blockchain movements.

🐋 Whales Still Bearish

Hyperliquid data shows profitable traders remain bearish.
Smaller accounts are ultra bullish.
Classic inversion.
A real trend reversal usually begins when whales flip bullish.

💣 Zcash Example

Zcash pumped with almost no structural support.
Beautiful setup for shorts if it loses the flip area.
If it dumps to 70 and bounces, long-term outlook still fine — but from a trading view, there’s no support until that zone.

📌 Actionable Insights

1. Treat this entire move as a dead cat bounce until BTC reclaims 116k.
No exceptions.

2. Expect a revisit of the 50-week EMA around 102k.
That’s the first real test.

3. Watch for a relief rally heading into January or February.
Historically consistent.

4. Track ETF flows daily.
Sustained inflows are required for any recovery.

5. Ignore headlines. Follow price structure.
Price tells truth. Narratives follow price.

6. Avoid alts in downtrends.
If they’re below the 50-week, they’re off the table.

7. Consider short setups on assets with no structural support under them.
Zcash, XRP and other vertical pumps qualify.

8. Keep macro dates in mind:

• May: incoming Fed chair

• October: typical macro cycle inflection

• Late 2026: likely full-risk meltup

9. Quantum resistance deserves attention.
Not immediate, but structural risk.

10. Stay liquid and don’t marry narratives.
Bear trends punish conviction traders.

🧩 Final Thoughts

Nobody has a crystal ball. Every cycle proves that loud calls and confident threads mean nothing compared to a clean break of a major trend line. Weekly structure under the 50 week deserves respect.
Watch how the market behaves into the close and especially into the second close. If buyers cannot reclaim the long term averages, the trend continues lower. If they do, the tone of the entire market shifts.

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