Unhosted Weekly #65 - January 5th

Ah Sh*t, Here We Go Again

🟠 Just 1.028M Bitcoin left to mine - the supply squeeze isn’t a theory, it was written straight into the code

👑 Binance sits miles ahead of every CEX by client assets

🚀 Polymarket users are leaning bullish on Bitcoin

💳 Visa crypto card usage goes vertical in 2025 - net spending exploded +525%, ripping from $14.6M to $91.3M

🌍 Crypto Tax-Free Zones → countries where your gains don’t get rugged by the taxman

Bitcoin’s “Back to Work” Bounce: Relief Rally or Bull Trap? 🧑‍💻📈

The holiday lull is over and Bitcoin is moving again. Price is attempting a rebound that could turn into a classic relief rally toward the 50-week moving average. Sounds bullish… until it isn’t.

The core idea: a pump can be tradable while the larger trend is still bearish. That’s the difference between making money in chop and donating liquidity in denial. 🪓💸

1) The current setup looks like a relief rally, not a trend reversal ⚠️

Bitcoin is bouncing, but a bounce is not automatically a new bull market.

What would improve confidence:

  • Breaking the nearby horizontal resistance decisively

  • Closing the week above that level (no fake wick celebrations)

  • Follow-through for multiple sessions without immediately fading

What keeps it “bull trap” territory ❌:

  • Price still below the 50-week moving average (102k)

  • Broader structure still pointing down

  • Altcoin weakness on higher timeframes

2) Tradable bull traps exist. The key is risk control 🎯

Counter-trend rallies can be profitable, especially in high-beta sectors like memes. A move like 0.005 → ~0.007 is roughly a 40–50% pop. That’s real money if risk is defined.

The mistake is confusing “good trade” with “new cycle.”

3) Macro can be supportive while price still punishes impatience 🏦➡️📉

There’s a bullish macro narrative: the Fed balance sheet rising again could eventually support risk assets like Bitcoin 📈.

But macro often lags price by months to over a year.

Actionable takeaway:

  • Use macro as context 🔭

  • Use price trend as the trigger 🧲

  • “Macro is bullish” is not a stop-loss 🚫

4) Metals are currently embarrassing “blue chip” crypto

On some sessions, gold and other metals can outperform major crypto by a lot. That’s not a prophecy, it’s a scoreboard.

As of today, the market is in a period of consolidation following a year of extraordinary gains, driven by a structural imbalance between robust demand and constrained supply, central bank accumulation, and a global shift toward de-dollarization.

Precious metals are still in a clear bullrun with daily Inflows outpacing crypto.

Precious Metals are still in a Bullrun

Geopolitics boosts gold fast. Bitcoin’s identity is inconsistent 🌍

Geopolitical tension tends to pump traditional safe havens quickly. Bitcoin sometimes behaves like “digital gold,” but often trades like a volatile tech stock. Judging by the last week its looking more like digital gold, however be ware of 50 week moving average. BTC is still in a bearish trend and until we break 102 and continue further current move is just a relief rally.

Bottom line 🧊

Bitcoin may be setting up a relief rally, but the larger structure still leans bearish until the weekly proves otherwise. There’s money to be made in counter-trend pumps, but only with defined risk, tight invalidation, and zero attachment.

Takeaway: In stress regimes, assume Bitcoin acts risk-on until proven otherwise.

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📍Unhosted AI Weekly: Smart Money Stays, Degens Scroll Away

🤖 AI + Robotics Market Pulse - Rotation Back Online 🤖⚙️

The AI sector just pushed to $28.6B market cap (+3.3% 24h) with $2.96B in daily volume. That’s not a melt-up, but it is steady accumulation. Capital is flowing back into names that actually ship infra, not just promise “agents” in a Medium post.

Robotics followed with more aggression. The robotics cluster ripped to $1.0B market cap (+13.6% 24h) on $359M volume. That’s rotation behavior, not retail mania. Money is hunting for second-order AI exposure, and hardware-adjacent narratives are back in scope.

📊 AI Token Movers

🧠 Chainlink (LINK) → $13.50, +0.9% daily, +7.9% weekly
Still the adult in the room. Oracle infra quietly absorbing capital while everyone else cosplays innovation. LINK doesn’t pump first, it pumps last.

🤖 Bittensor (TAO) → $261.89, -0.8% daily, +15.5% weekly
Volatile but alive. The market still believes in decentralized AI training, just not every day. Pullbacks get bought.

🟢 NEAR Protocol (NEAR) → $1.72, +0.2% daily, +9.4% weekly
Not pure AI, but AI-friendly infra keeps benefiting. NEAR continues to trade like a reliable backend, not a hype coin.

🌐 Internet Computer (ICP) → $3.21, +0.3% daily, +4.2% weekly
Still misunderstood, still grinding. When infra narratives matter again, ICP quietly shows up.

🎨 Render (RNDR) → $2.06, +14.0% daily, +53.4% weekly
Clear winner. Compute demand + AI visuals + real usage. This is what conviction looks like when narrative meets revenue.

📖 Story (IP) → $2.10, +30.4% weekly
High-beta AI narrative play. Strong momentum, but needs follow-through or it risks becoming another “interesting idea” chart.

🤖 Robotics Token Movers

⚙️ Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) → $1.04, +20.7% daily, +46.3% weekly
Dominating both AI and robotics dashboards. This is what happens when narrative coherence meets liquidity. Crowd favorite for a reason.

🔗 peaq (PEAQ) → $0.0377, +6.4% daily, +13.2% weekly
Still the backbone of the robotics narrative. Not flashy, but holding the sector together. If robotics sustains, PEAQ stays relevant.

🛠️ Auki (AUKI) → $0.0101, +2.1% daily, +16.9% weekly
Thin liquidity, improving structure. Good for rotations, bad for overconfidence. Treat as a trade, not a belief system.

🛰️ Geodnet (GEOD) → $0.1467, +2.0% daily, +2.1% weekly
Stable, boring, useful. That’s a compliment. Infrastructure that survives drawdowns earns respect.

📡 NATIX Network (NATIX) → $0.000309, +14.5% daily, +7.3% weekly
Classic low-float pop. When volume fades, so will the excitement. Until then, traders will farm it.

👉 TL;DR

AI is back in accumulation mode, robotics is in rotation mode.
Render and Virtuals are the clear momentum leaders. LINK and TAO remain structural holds. PEAQ anchors robotics, while AUKI and NATIX serve as speculative satellites.

This isn’t AI mania. It’s smarter money repositioning early.

💡 Playbook:
Rotate, don’t marry. Size down on microcaps, let winners prove durability, and remember: real infra outlives loud narratives.

🛠️ Sentiment Split - Greed Flexes, Pain Sulks

🟢 Good Sentiment

Retail’s back on the gas. Attention and chatter piling into: USELESS (18.1K) leading the chaos, followed by SEI (16.3K), PEPE (15.9K), FARTCOIN (14.1K), XRP (12.3K), and Inference Labs (11.9K).
Mid-pack hype magnets like ASTER, BLUP, PENGU, TAO, BONK, and BTC soaking up steady dopamine. This is classic risk-on behavior: memes, infra, majors all partying in the same room with no fire exits.

🔴 Bad Sentiment

Meanwhile, the cope chamber is loud. WYNN (-7.8K) takes the FUD crown, with Infinex (-4.8K), CAKE (-2.7K), WLFI (-2.4K), K3 Capital (-2.4K), and Bags (-2.3K) catching strays.
Hardware wallets and “serious finance” not spared either: Trezor, DYDX, USDS, HODL, and PUMP all bleeding attention. This is what post-hype digestion looks like.

👉 TL;DR:
Greed is winning the volume war. USELESS, PEPE, and SEI dominate the optimism wave while WYNN and CAKE absorb collective disappointment. Same old psychology: green side overdosing on confidence, red side writing Medium posts about “long-term vision.” Rotation is alive, attention is fickle, and sentiment will flip the second charts stop rewarding bravery.

🛰️ Agent Market Check - $6.2B Sector, Money In, Attention Out

Agent market cap clocks in at $6.2B (+4.14% 24h) while Smart Engagement slides to 2.94K (-3.35%). Translation: capital keeps flowing, but the crowd is talking less. Classic mid-cycle behavior. Charts go up, timelines go quiet.

Dominance snapshot:

  • Base → $2.46B (+7.49%) stealing the spotlight. L2 agents are not a side experiment anymore, they’re where the momentum lives.

  • Ethereum → $1.49B (+4.76%) still relevant, still expensive, still slower.

  • Other chains → $2.71B (-1.38%) losing ground. If you’re not Base or ETH, you’re background noise.

📊 Leaders by Mindshare (24h):

🟢 FARTCOIN (13.89%, +6.44) - meme-agent absurdity fully embraced. This isn’t utility, it’s gravity via chaos. Attention monster for now.
🟢 WARP (9.01%, +1.06) - quiet climber. Feels like infra-adjacent positioning rather than pure hype.
🟢 ELSA AI (5.65%, -2.97) - still a top name, but cooling fast. Cute UI can’t carry forever.
🟢 OPUS (5.38%, +0.73) - steady, almost boring. Which in this market is bullish.
🟢 VIRTUAL (5.27%, +0.19) - small uptick, still fighting for narrative relevance.

📉 Attention Losers:

🔴 BNKR (3.14%, -5.94) - sharp drop. Either profit-taking or the market moving on from “wallet hype.”
🔴 ELSA AI (-2.97) - double mention for a reason. Slipping sentiment despite name recognition.
🔴 COOKIE (-0.81) - farming fatigue showing.
🔴 NAVAL / HOLO - effectively invisible. No narrative, no mercy.

👉 TL;DR:
Agents grind higher to $6.2B, but engagement leaks out the back door. Base is winning the platform war, memes like FARTCOIN dominate attention, while “serious” agents bleed mindshare. This is a divergence phase: less noise, more positioning. When engagement flips back up, whatever held share quietly will move first. Until then, memes pump, infra waits, and everyone pretends it’s intentional.

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