Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #11

🎢 Weekly Market Watch: BTC Ups & Downs.

📊 Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster & Macro Monday Wrap-Up

It’s been a wild week for Bitcoin, peaking at $108,000, dipping to $92,000, and closing near $95,000. Thanks to Jerome Powell’s latest verbal smackdown and the macroeconomic chaos, the bears are growling, even though most agree it’s just a matter of time before BTC skyrockets to $125,000 or more. Let’s break down the drama, predictions, and takeaways as we close out the year:

📉 The Fed’s Rate Reality Check

Jerome Powell and the Fed reminded everyone this week that inflation is still a beast they’re trying to tame. The market responded accordingly:

• Bitcoin: A swift drop as Powell’s hawkish tone reset expectations.

• S&P 500: Overpriced optimism might finally meet its match in early 2025.

Powell hinted at focusing on future tariff-induced inflation—a curveball even the bond market didn’t see coming. Could this be the start of a long, grinding correction rather than a dramatic crash?

📈 The Head-and-Shoulders That Probably Isn’t

Let’s talk about Bitcoin, because why wouldn’t we? The crypto OG is back at its favorite hobby: confusing the masses. Everyone and their Twitter bot is screaming about a potential head-and-shoulders pattern emerging. Spoiler alert: It’s probably fake. But hey, let’s dissect this circus for the sake of our sanity.

🔍 The Short-Term Breakdown
Bitcoin’s been playing ping-pong between $92K and $100K. Yesterday’s 6H and 4H charts showed hidden bearish divergences, and Bitcoin duly obliged with a dip to $94.5K. Predictable, yes. Exciting? Not really. As long as BTC closes below $95K, expect some polite nudging toward $92K. Break that? We might flirt with the upper $80K range. But don't grab your pitchforks just yet; this market loves a good fake-out.

🚩 The Emerging Trap: A Prolonged Consolidation?

• Trap Zone: A rally failing to break above $102,200–$103,750 (50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement) could trigger a rejection.

• Implication: This might push Bitcoin to the mid-$80,000s, prolonging consolidation into early 2025.

• Key Levels: A break above $103,750 by the monthly close would invalidate bearish signals.

💡 Trading Tip: Watch for a potential lower high near $103K. Failure to breach this zone could signal a deeper pullback.

🌟 Ripple Making Waves

• RLUSD Stablecoin: Ripple launched RLUSD, a USD-pegged stablecoin built on XRP Ledger, aimed at institutional adoption. Early adoption metrics and exchange support indicate positive momentum.

• XRP Dominance: XRP surged in dominance, partly fueled by renewed optimism after Trump’s election and Ripple’s strategic moves, including high-profile hires from central banks.

🔥 DeFi Resurgence

• World Liberty Financial: Trump-backed initiative buying DeFi tokens like AAVE and ATHENA drove market excitement. Regulatory shifts under Trump’s administration are expected to favor DeFi.

• Notable Projects:

  • AAVE: Approved WL Financial's proposal to deploy on its protocol.

  • ATHENA: Launched a new tokenized treasury stablecoin, USDE, gaining traction despite initial skepticism.

  • Chainlink: Expanded beyond oracles with cross-chain interoperability features (CCIP), driving adoption.

💡 HyperLiquid: Revolutionary DEX

• Overview: A high-performance L1 designed for decentralized perpetual trading. Features include gasless transactions, EVM compatibility, and exceptional transaction speeds.

• Airdrop: Distributed 31% of tokens ($1.8B), marking one of the most significant community-driven drops in history.

• Concerns: Centralization risks (only four validators) and speculation around involvement by North Korea’s Lazarus group raised eyebrows.

🤖 The Agentic Future: AI Agent Weekly Analysis

The decentralized AI landscape continues to evolve at a breakneck pace, serving up more twists than a Shyamalan movie. This week, we’ve seen AI Agents dominate headlines with jaw-dropping moves, from raising billions to taking over entire social media operations. Let’s dive into the chaos:

🧵 The Big Moves in Decentralized AI

1. xAI’s $6 Billion Power Play
   Blackrock and Sequoia just handed xAI a fat $6B check in a Series C round. Why? To double their GPU clusters to 200k units. Because what’s better than Skynet? Two Skynets.

2. Story Protocol Hires an AI Social Media Manager
   Luna, an AI Agent, now runs Story Protocol’s socials for $365k/year. Is it overkill or the start of AI replacing the entire marketing department? Either way, Luna’s flexing, and we’re here for it.

3. Fartcoin Is… Blowing Up?
   Yes, Fartcoin. The meme coin endorsed by an AI Agent (Truth Terminal) now commands over a third of AI coin attention on Crypto Twitter. It’s ridiculous, and we love it.

4. Vader_AI Launches an Investment DAO
   Vader’s first investment DAO filled up in 30 seconds, raising $140k. A second round is launching soon. For a fund managed autonomously by an AI Agent, it’s starting to look surprisingly competent.

📊 AI Agent Market Overview

• The market cap of AI Agents fell 15% to $9.1B this week, despite the addition of 78 new Agents. Liquidity seems to be playing musical chairs.

• Virtuals and infrastructure-focused agents like ai16z are holding up better than individual agents.

• Newcomers like Trenches_AI (meme sniper), Scout (sports betting bot), and PanterAI (AI news analyst) are gaining traction, some even hitting eight-figure valuations.

Want to spot these trends early? Momentum dashboards are now live on Cookie. They track movements in mindshare and market cap over 12h/24h/48h timeframes.

🌍 NFT Market Corner

The NFT market is having a moment:

• Ethereum volume hits $165M, with Pudgys dominating the charts at $73M.

• Speculation is swirling around Kaito’s Genesis NFTs, which raised 150 ETH and now trade at 4 ETH. Could they tie into an airdrop? You know the drill: speculation is utility.

⚡ TL;DR Highlights

• AI Agents are becoming the face (and brain) of decentralized operations.

• Meme coins like Fartcoin are proof that the internet is undefeated.

• The market remains volatile but brimming with opportunities.

• NFTs aren’t dead; they’re just evolving (again).

The future of decentralized AI is weird, wild, and full of potential. Keep your eyes open and your bags packed.

RSI Heatmap Analysis🧩

Overview of the Market Conditions

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) heatmap for the crypto market reveals a diverse spectrum of trading conditions, categorized as Oversold, Neutral, Strong, and Overbought across various assets. Let’s break it down:

🚨 Overbought Assets: Warning Signs

• SUN: Firmly in the overbought zone, indicating strong upward momentum but also the risk of a swift correction.

• W: Elevated RSI reflects heavy demand; traders should be ready for potential price pullbacks. (PS chart looks like most of the early airdrops have already capitulated which could indicate another move up)

• AI: Near the top of the RSI chart; current momentum is bullish, but watch for signs of weakening.

• LUNA2: Overbought territory may signal that bullish momentum could be nearing exhaustion.

Actionable Insight
Overbought status often suggests caution. If entering a position, look for pullback or confirmation signals to mitigate risk.

📊 Neutral to Strong Signals

• LIT: Sitting just below overbought levels, indicating robust momentum without hitting an extreme.

• AERGO: In the strong RSI range—bullish sentiment is intact, but overbought territory is not far off.

Potential Plays
If these assets maintain current momentum, they could see further gains. Keep a close watch for any RSI move into the overbought zone, which might lead to a corrective phase.

📉 Neutral (Formerly Labeled as “Oversold”)

Contrary to previous labeling, some assets are not oversold but are actually in neutral zones:

• BTC: RSI places BTC firmly in neutral territory, reflecting balanced market sentiment rather than extreme undervaluation.

• XRP, ADA, MKR: Similar neutral-zone readings suggest that while these assets may not be deeply undervalued, they aren’t overheated either.

Strategy
Neutral readings can offer flexibility:

1. Upside Potential if market sentiment improves.

2. Limited Downside compared to overbought assets, barring major negative news or market shifts.

📉 Oversold Opportunities

A smaller set of tokens is actually in weak or oversold territory:

• SCR: Still among the deeper oversold readings, indicating a possible reversal if broader market sentiment turns positive.

• KOMA: Positioned at the lower end of RSI—any catalyst or increased buying interest could spark a bounce.

Tactical Approach
Oversold assets can be favorable for risk-tolerant traders hunting for reversal plays. Waiting for confirmation via rising RSI or bullish crossover signals can help manage downside risk.

🔗 Market-Wide Insights

1. Fragmented RSI

   • The spread ranges from deeply oversold (FTM, KOMA) to heavily overbought (SUN, USTC, AI), indicating pockets of both bullish and bearish sentiment.

2. Neutral Zone Dominance

   • Many assets, including large caps like BTC, XRP, ADA, and MKR, sit in neutral territory, suggesting a consolidative or wait-and-see approach by market participants.

3. Volatility Preparedness

   • Rapid shifts can occur as sentiment flips; monitor volume and price action closely to capitalize on abrupt trend changes or guard against sudden drawdowns.

Actionable Tip

• Focus on neutral assets for swing opportunities—if they break out toward strong RSI levels, it can yield upside.

• Exercise caution with overbought tokens, adjusting stop losses or scaling out to lock in gains.

🚀 Recent Fundraising Highlights

This week brought significant fundraising updates across the blockchain and AI space. Here are the key projects and their achievements:

1. Nodepay

• Round: Unknown

• Amount: $7M

• Focus: AI, Infrastructure

• Key Investors: IDG Capital, Mythos, IBC Consulting (+4 more)

Why It Matters:
Nodepay is channeling AI into payment infrastructure—a space that continues to attract deep-pocketed backers looking to streamline on-chain financial services.

2. ChainOpera AI

• Round: Seed

• Amount: $17M

• Focus: AI, DApp, L1

• Key Investors: Finality Capital Partners, Road Capital, IDG Capital (+13 more)

Why It Matters:
ChainOpera AI is tackling the intersection of artificial intelligence and decentralized applications. The significant seed raise underscores investor optimism around AI-enabled L1 blockchains.

3. Swan Chain (ex FilSwan)

• Round: Unknown

• Amount: $2M

• Focus: AI, DApp, DePIN, L2, Zero-Knowledge

• Key Investors: DWF Labs, Optimism, Promontory

Why It Matters:
Rebranding from FilSwan to Swan Chain, this project is building an L2 and zero-knowledge tech stack with AI capabilities—an emerging area that’s capturing attention for privacy-preserving data processing and scaling solutions.

4. Trrue Chain (TTRUE)

• Round: Private

• Amount: $10M

• Focus: L1, Real-World Assets

• Key Investors: Gem Digital

Why It Matters:
Trrue Chain is looking to tokenize real-world assets, bridging traditional finance and blockchain. The private funding round demonstrates continued appetite for projects aiming to bring tangible assets on-chain.

5. MelosBoom

• Round: Series B

• Amount: TBD

• Focus: AI, Data Service, DePIN, Music

• Key Investors: LBank Labs (and more)

Why It Matters:
Combining AI and decentralized infrastructure in the music industry, MelosBoom has caught the eye of strategic investors looking to push boundaries in entertainment and data services.

Key Takeaways

• AI Integration: Projects fusing AI with blockchain are drawing robust early-stage and follow-on funding.

• Real-World Assets: Interest in tokenizing tangible goods continues, signifying a growing push to marry traditional assets with digital platforms.

• DePIN & Zero-Knowledge: Infrastructure that emphasizes privacy and decentralized physical networks is on the rise, indicating strong investor confidence in advanced scaling and data security solutions.

Stay tuned for more insights and analysis on these ventures as they develop. Let us know which projects pique your interest!

🎁 Latest Airdrops

Here’s your weekly dose of fresh airdrop opportunities. Participate and earn tokens or rewards by completing simple tasks. Don't miss out!

1. Wayfinder (Confirmed)

• Action: Sign up and/or Cache $PRIME

• What to Do: If you haven’t already, create an account on Wayfinder’s platform and consider caching (staking/holding) their native $PRIME token.

• Why It’s Hot: The team has confirmed a token incentive, making this one of the more direct paths to qualify for an airdrop.

2. Berachain

• Action: Complete testnet actions, join the staking campaign

• What to Do: Get involved in Berachain’s testnet activities—run transactions, provide feedback, and participate in their staking campaign if available.

• Why It’s Hot: Berachain is gaining traction with its unique focus on AI and zero-knowledge capabilities. Engaging in testnet often sets the stage for potential airdrops when mainnet launches.

3. Caldera

• Action: Collect points

• What to Do: Look out for tasks on Caldera’s platform that allow you to accumulate “points.” This might involve using dApps, bridging assets, or testing new features.

• Why It’s Hot: Projects that gamify community participation with point-collection frequently convert these points into tokens later, though it’s not guaranteed.

4. ChangeNOW

• Value: n/a

• What to Do: Keep an eye on their social channels and official announcements. While no specific tasks or values are detailed yet, signing up or using the platform could be beneficial if an airdrop is announced down the line.

• Why It’s Hot: ChangeNOW is a popular exchange service—any future token release might reward early adopters or frequent users.

5. BoxBet

• Value: n/a

• What to Do: Monitor their website and social feeds for instructions on how to qualify. Sometimes simply signing up or testing the platform early can help you secure an allocation if a token is released.

• Why It’s Hot: As a new betting-focused project, BoxBet could provide unique use cases that attract a dedicated community (and possibly an airdrop).

Good luck, and happy earning! 🚀

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