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- Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #32
Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #32
Downgrade for the US --> Upgrade for BTC narrative!
👀 Last week in Crypto
🔥The latest weekly candle close was the highest in Bitcoin history ($106,454).
🤔 Someone opened a long with 40x leverage for $276 million at $103,129. The market immediately began to slide downwards in the direction of its liquidation.
🤯 In the past week alone, 325,000 new tokens were launched on the Solana blockchain.
🚀 Metaplane t bought another 1,004 BTC for $104.3 million at a price of $103,873 per bitcoin.
Struggling to grasp Bitcoin’s scarcity?
Here’s the kicker: only 0.27% of the global population could ever own a full BTC. That’s less than one in 370 people. Finite supply. Infinite cope.
🚨 Australian court rules Bitcoin is money, not an asset — meaning BTC may dodge capital gains tax. Could unlock $1B in refunds for Aussie holders. Cheering.
Bitcoin’s “Double-Top” Panic: Signal or Noise?
Key Levels, Macro Drivers & Actionable Trade Ideas
TL;DR (If you only have 30 seconds)
Topic | Take-away | Trader actions |
|---|---|---|
Weekly structure | Up-trend intact (higher highs / higher lows). Last week closed at $106 K – the highest weekly close in Bitcoin history. | Treat the Monday dump as noise until the weekly candle closes. Only a weekly close below the 50-week MA would invalidate the trend. |
Moody’s US downgrade | US long-term debt cut to AA1. 30-yr yields spiked → Fed already “quiet-buying” bonds (≈ $88 B in one day). | 1) Expect choppy risk-off in stocks/crypto. 2) Medium-term this is QE-lite → net bullish for BTC & gold. |
Bond-market stress | Missed auctions in 30-yr Treasuries would equal de-facto default; Fed must cap yields. | Pairs trade: Long BTC / Short long-duration Treasuries (e.g. TLT) until the Fed formally pivots. |
Corporate balance-sheet bid | MicroStrategy, MetaPlanet (Japan) & now DeFi Development Corp (for SOL). | Screen micro-cap & mid-cap equities that can “copy-paste” the Bitcoin-treasury playbook. Momentum reacts before filings. |
Generational tail-wind | Zoomers & millennials already understand self-custody; capital naturally migrates to BTC over time. | Use cyclical pull-backs to build a structural long/core position; trade around it with 25-30 % of the stack. |
1. The Chart Everyone’s Pointing At: “Double-Top” Fears
Daily & Weekly candles are red → traders scream double-top.
On the weekly, the current candle is only a few hours old; six trading days remain.
Action: Until we close the week, treat this dip as a potential bear-trap. The invalidation line is the 50-week moving average (~ $94 K). A weekly close below it warrants de-risking; anything above keeps the up-trend alive.
2. Moody’s Downgrade: Why It’s Short-Term Bearish, Mid-Term Bullish
What happened?
Moody’s cut US sovereign credit from AAA → AA1 (S&P and Fitch already did).Immediate impact:
Some pensions & insurers can hold only AAA → mechanical selling.
30-yr & 20-yr yields spike → risk-off flows.
Why it flips bullish:
Higher yields = higher carry-cost for the Treasury.
The Fed must cap long-end yields → stealth QE (already buying $43–88 B/week).
More printed dollars → harder assets (BTC, gold) gain relative value.
Action: If your macro horizon is weeks–months, buy fear on a ratings-driven dump. Size entries around weekly structure; add if/when Fed liquidity ramps.
3. The Bond Desk Insider Warning
Ex-Salomon 30-yr-bond market maker (@Arthur_Hayes repost) calls current auctions a “ticking time-bomb”
Missed 30-yr auction = default mechanics.
Without Fed support, roll-over risk is real in 2025.
Actionable trades:
Long BTC / Short TLT (or TY futures) pairs trade. Correlation tail-wind if the Fed caps yields.
Vol hedge: buy cheap +3 M BTC puts on >50 % draw-downs only if the Fed unexpectedly steps back.
4. Corporate “MicroStrategy Effect” – Still in Stage 1
MetaPlanet (Japan): +1,040 BTC last week (treasury ≈ $1 B).
DeFi Development Corp (SOL strategy): stock up 10× since pivot; now validator partnership with $BONK.
Action:
• Run a 10-K screen for cash-rich small caps (< $2 B) that could adopt a Bitcoin-treasury narrative. Front-run the PR.
• For SOL exposure, watch DDC (ticker: HNRA) and any copycats that file shelf registrations.
5. Freedom Tech vs. Surveillance: Why Self-Custody Matters
France allegedly pressured Telegram to censor political voices.
EU floats mandatory wallet registration.
Privacy, encryption, and self-custody are more valuable with every authoritarian headline.
Action:
• Keep 50–70 % of long-term BTC off-exchange.
• Test alternative liquidity rails (Lightning, stables on Solana, etc.) before you need them.
6. Generation Game: Runescape Taught Us Order Books
If you grew up flipping dragon scimitars on Runescape’s Grand Exchange, you intuitively understand:
Market depth
Slippage
OTC negotiation (Varrock West Bank!)
Zoomer capital will keep shifting from legacy banks to self-custodied digital assets. That secular flow dwarfs any single candle.
7. Trade Plan Checklist (Next 1–4 Weeks)
Checklist | Notes |
|---|---|
Weekly close above 50 W MA ($94 K) | Remain core-long BTC. |
Monitor Fed balance-sheet (H.4.1 Thurs) | If SOMA holdings rise → add risk. |
S&P 500 correlation | A sustained >5 % equity draw-down can drag BTC temporarily. |
Watch 30-yr auction bid-to-cover | Weak auction = Fed pivot sooner → bullish BTC. |
Volatility smile | Skew still favors upside calls → consider 110–150 K call spreads into Q1 25. |
Bottom Line
Red candles create headlines; liquidity drives megatrends.
The Moody’s downgrade might shake markets for days, but the structural response—more printing—remains Bitcoin’s best friend.
Stay nimble on the daily noise, but keep your compass fixed on the weekly trend: higher highs, higher lows, and a macro backdrop that all but begs for hard-asset exposure.
Trade safe, stay sovereign, and enjoy the ride.
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