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- Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #33
Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #33
Double top or Double gains?
👀 Last week in Crypto
🔥 Bitcoin is back at $110K.
😱 Metaplanet’s market cap has surged 340x since adopting the Bitcoin standard back in April 2024. Turns out going full degen pays off.
🥵 Aave just hit a new all-time high in USDT deployment—over $3.5 billion in play. DeFi’s still cooking.
🫠 Crypto Twitter’s latest main character?
Trader James Wynn. After making headlines with a legendary $1.2B BTC long, he just torched $60M on a public short. Still up $12M overall, but the rollercoaster’s real.
🧊 Circle just printed another 250M USDC - bringing their monthly mint spree to $1.5B. Stablecoin season is in full swing.
😅 The easiest way to spot the market cycle? Just listen to what your friends are saying.
🔥 Bitcoin back above $110 k • Macro head-fakes • Why the “tariff dumps” are buy-the-dip events
1. Bitcoin’s posture: higher-highs resume
Time-frame | Level to watch | Comment |
|---|---|---|
Weekly | $94 k (50-week MA) | Last two weeks printed the highest weekly closes in BTC history. Trend intact until we close < $94 k. |
Daily | $109 k | Friday’s “tariff dump” retraced; we’re pressing into fresh highs. A daily close above $109 k opens $120–125 k. |
The new Money-Line v2 agrees: momentum flips bearish only below $92-94 k. Until then, every dip is statistically a buy.
2. Macro noise ≠ Macro trend
Macro driver | What happened | Net effect for BTC |
|---|---|---|
Tariff headlines | Friday: Trump threatens 50 % EU tariff → risk dump. Monday: tariffs “paused” → risk bounce. | Short-term volatility; long-term irrelevant. |
M2 supply vs. BTC | We’re still below the 1-to-1 regression line. | Catch-up implies ~40 % upside without fresh liquidity. |
Fed balance-sheet | QT has stalled; insiders see stealth buying in long bonds as yields spike. | Any formal QE restart is rocket fuel. |
Remember: the last 18-month rally happened under tightening. Imagine the asymmetry once easing begins.
3. Who’s buying? - The corporate & fund bid accelerates
Player | Latest move |
|---|---|
Jack Mallers’ 21Co | Raising to buy 1 million BTC (≈ 5 % of supply). |
MetaPlanet (Japan) | +1,040 BTC last week; treasury ≈ $1 bn. |
DeFi Development Corp | 10× stock-price since pivot to SOL treasury; now co-running a BONK |
Math: 9 % of Bitcoin migrated from retail to ETFs/treasuries in 14 months → price +259 %.
A further 5 % shift = +140 % (all else equal).
4. Alt-coin rotation – the leaders so far
Pair | Status | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
SUI / SOL | Range-bound since January, but SUI threatens a breakout. | Keep both on; watch 5 US$ for blue-sky. |
HYPER / SOL & SUI | Fresh weekly breakouts. | Decentralised-perp volume + narrative = outperformance. |
SOL / BTC | Still below bullish Money-Line (needs > $188). | Opportunity: SOL hasn’t “sparked” yet this leg. |
Meme note: FartCoin (FART) continues to grind into all-time-highs. The market loves transparent, VC-free tokenomics—even when the ticker is a joke.
5. DeFi infra to watch
Hyperliquid – on-chain perps hitting > $250 m daily.
Solana Attestation Service – open-source identity primitives (re-usable KYC, tokenised equities).
Arbitrum + Base upgrades – Coinbase’s L2 slashing confirmation times to challenge Solana UX.
Theta – FC Seoul partnership; looking for first meaningful price response.
6. Trading tactics for the week
Core positioning
Stay long BTC above $94 k weekly.
Accumulate SOL on sub-$180 dips (anticipating Money-Line flip).
Event-driven hedges
Trump-tweet sell-offs: use tight stop-grids or DCA bots (e.g. Pionex futures grid) instead of manual panic.
Pairs & themes
Long BTC / Short long-bond ETFs (TLT) until yields capped.
Rotational play: SUI-strength vs. SOL; monitor Hyperliquid momentum.
Risk management
Trump tariffs = hours-to-days volatility, not trend-enders. Size positions, set stops, sleep easy.
Keep 50 %+ long-term stack in cold storage—France’s Telegram censorship push is your reminder.
7. Big-picture conviction
Bitcoin rallied from $42 k → $110 k during QT.
Now:
Interest-rate cuts loom.
Fed balance sheet has quietly stopped shrinking.
Retail supply keeps transferring to “diamond-hand” treasuries.
Gen-Z wealth flows natively to self-custody assets.
A 2–3× in the next 6–12 months is the base-case. Anything less will require a macro shock bigger than 2020—and even that only paused the up-trend for weeks.
Stay nimble on headlines, stay bullish on mathematics. See you on-chain.
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