Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #33

Double top or Double gains?

May 26, 2025

👀 Last week in Crypto

đŸ”„ Bitcoin is back at $110K.

đŸ˜± Metaplanet’s market cap has surged 340x since adopting the Bitcoin standard back in April 2024. Turns out going full degen pays off. 

đŸ„” Aave just hit a new all-time high in USDT deployment—over $3.5 billion in play. DeFi’s still cooking.

đŸ«  Crypto Twitter’s latest main character?

Trader James Wynn. After making headlines with a legendary $1.2B BTC long, he just torched $60M on a public short. Still up $12M overall, but the rollercoaster’s real. 

🧊 Circle just printed another 250M USDC - bringing their monthly mint spree to $1.5B. Stablecoin season is in full swing.

😅 The easiest way to spot the market cycle? Just listen to what your friends are saying.

đŸ”„ Bitcoin back above $110 k ‱ Macro head-fakes ‱ Why the “tariff dumps” are buy-the-dip events

1. Bitcoin’s posture: higher-highs resume

Time-frame

Level to watch

Comment

Weekly

$94 k (50-week MA)

Last two weeks printed the highest weekly closes in BTC history. Trend intact until we close < $94 k.

Daily

$109 k

Friday’s “tariff dump” retraced; we’re pressing into fresh highs. A daily close above $109 k opens $120–125 k.

The new Money-Line v2 agrees: momentum flips bearish only below $92-94 k. Until then, every dip is statistically a buy.

2. Macro noise ≠ Macro trend

Macro driver

What happened

Net effect for BTC

Tariff headlines

Friday: Trump threatens 50 % EU tariff → risk dump. Monday: tariffs “paused” → risk bounce.

Short-term volatility; long-term irrelevant.

M2 supply vs. BTC

We’re still below the 1-to-1 regression line.

Catch-up implies ~40 % upside without fresh liquidity.

Fed balance-sheet

QT has stalled; insiders see stealth buying in long bonds as yields spike.

Any formal QE restart is rocket fuel.

Remember: the last 18-month rally happened under tightening. Imagine the asymmetry once easing begins.

3. Who’s buying? - The corporate & fund bid accelerates

Player

Latest move

Jack Mallers’ 21Co

Raising to buy 1 million BTC (≈ 5 % of supply).

MetaPlanet (Japan)

+1,040 BTC last week; treasury ≈ $1 bn.

DeFi Development Corp

10× stock-price since pivot to SOL treasury; now co-running a BONK
validator.

Math: 9 % of Bitcoin migrated from retail to ETFs/treasuries in 14 months → price +259 %.
A further 5 % shift = +140 % (all else equal).

4. Alt-coin rotation – the leaders so far

Pair

Status

Read-through

SUI / SOL

Range-bound since January, but SUI threatens a breakout.

Keep both on; watch 5 US$ for blue-sky.

HYPER / SOL & SUI

Fresh weekly breakouts.

Decentralised-perp volume + narrative = outperformance.

SOL / BTC

Still below bullish Money-Line (needs > $188).

Opportunity: SOL hasn’t “sparked” yet this leg.

Meme note: FartCoin (FART) continues to grind into all-time-highs. The market loves transparent, VC-free tokenomics—even when the ticker is a joke.

5. DeFi infra to watch

  • Hyperliquid – on-chain perps hitting > $250 m daily.

  • Solana Attestation Service – open-source identity primitives (re-usable KYC, tokenised equities).

  • Arbitrum + Base upgrades – Coinbase’s L2 slashing confirmation times to challenge Solana UX.

  • Theta – FC Seoul partnership; looking for first meaningful price response.

6. Trading tactics for the week

  1. Core positioning

    • Stay long BTC above $94 k weekly.

    • Accumulate SOL on sub-$180 dips (anticipating Money-Line flip).

  2. Event-driven hedges

    • Trump-tweet sell-offs: use tight stop-grids or DCA bots (e.g. Pionex futures grid) instead of manual panic.

  3. Pairs & themes

    • Long BTC / Short long-bond ETFs (TLT) until yields capped.

    • Rotational play: SUI-strength vs. SOL; monitor Hyperliquid momentum.

  4. Risk management

    • Trump tariffs = hours-to-days volatility, not trend-enders. Size positions, set stops, sleep easy.

    • Keep 50 %+ long-term stack in cold storage—France’s Telegram censorship push is your reminder.

7. Big-picture conviction

Bitcoin rallied from $42 k → $110 k during QT.
Now:

  • Interest-rate cuts loom.

  • Fed balance sheet has quietly stopped shrinking.

  • Retail supply keeps transferring to “diamond-hand” treasuries.

  • Gen-Z wealth flows natively to self-custody assets.

A 2–3× in the next 6–12 months is the base-case. Anything less will require a macro shock bigger than 2020—and even that only paused the up-trend for weeks.

Stay nimble on headlines, stay bullish on mathematics. See you on-chain.

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