Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #34

Bitcoin: Bear Trap before next leg up!

June 02, 2025

🗓 Crypto Calendar for June by Layer GG

🔵 Important events - ⚪️ Positive event - 🔴 Negative events

📉 The number of bitcoins on exchanges fell to a historical minimum of 2.2 million BTC

Deficit

💸 What $1,000 Invested in Bitcoin, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Gold Would Have Been Worth Over the Last 5 Years

BTC = $12156, Nasdaq = $2323, S&P = $2033, Gold = $1896

💸 Metaplanet bought another 1088 BTC for $117.3 million at $107,771 per coin

As of June 2, 2025, Metaplanet holds 8,888 BTC, purchased for $829.7 million at an average price of $93,354 per bitcoin.

As of June 1, 2025, they purchased 580,955 BTC for $40.68 billion at an average price of $70,023 per coin.

😡 Ross Ulbricht Has Raised Over 11 BTC (Over $1.8 Million) From Selling His Prison-Time Stuff

His prison card for the period 2024-2025 went for 5.5 BTC

📈 Total number of transactions processed through Sui's L1 blockchain (2 years old) is approaching the level of Ripple's 12-year-old asset

3,632,168 vs. 3,797,506

Scenario (BTC price)	Probability	Rationale	Action
$90–105 k range (current)	40 %	Routine pull-back after a +50 % rally; no change in weekly trend.	DCA, run low-leverage grid-bots.
$95–100 k retest	30 %	Psychological “back-to-five-figures” bid + 50-W MA support ($94 k).	Scale bids; add protective puts on alts.
$75–90 k flush	20 %	Only if 50-W MA & Money-Line flip bearish.	Hedge core stack; short alts > β.
<$70 k capitulation	10 %	Requires macro shock and massive forced liquidations.	Prepare dry powder; look for 200-W MA swing-long.

Bottom line: pull-backs are still probability-weighted bear traps until the 50-week MA ($94 k) fails and the Money-Line prints red.

Catalyst	Date / Status	Trading Cue
Fed Chair Powell speaks (13:00 EST)	Today	Any hint of rate-cut timeline = bid risk; delta-hedge upside calls.
US debt-ceiling repeal chatter	Trump + Warren oddly agree	Perpetual QE narrative → structural tail-wind for BTC.
M2 vs. BTC gap	Still below regression line	Implies +30-40 % “catch-up” without new liquidity.

Metaplanet adds 17 m USD, becoming 10th-largest corporate holder.
Jack Mallers’ 21Co raising to buy 1 m BTC (~5 % of supply).
ETFs & treasuries hoovered 9 % of retail coins in 14 months → price +259 %.
Model: every 1 % retail outflow ≈ 28 % spot upside.

Strategy	How to Execute	Why Now
Grid-Bot Accumulation (e.g. 105–90 k)	Futures grid, 3-5× lev, 50–70 grids	Buys dips / sells rips emotion-free.
Momentum Re-entry (HYPER, COOKIE)	Buy pull-backs to prior ATH breakout levels	Both retested and held; TVOL surging.
SOL “Money-Line Flip” Swing	Bid < $180 with stop $155; target $240	Still technically bearish; risk-reward skewed once weekly flips green.
Macro Hedge	Long BTC / Short TLT (UST 20-yr ETF)	Rising yields + stealth QE favour BTC.

Hyperliquid
Breakout + retest of ~$33 ATH; exchange volumes > $250 m.
Chain + EVM launching—aims to capture both Solana DJ users and ETH dev mind-share.
Solana App Kit (React-Native)
One-command scaffolding for mobile dApps—opens the door to iOS/Android-first roll-outs.
Ethereum – Vitalik targets 10× L1 scale in 12 months; “breather” fork for account-abstraction & SS-withdrawals after that.
Take-away: No relief to L2 liquidity-split problem until at least late-2026.

Australia (from 1 July):
15 % tax on unrealised gains above AUS $3 m (≈ US $2 m) – politicians exempt.

Implications:

Tech founders & crypto holders face annual mark-to-market drain.
Expect talent & capital flight; monitor NZ, Singapore, Vanuatu immigration queries.

Stay nimble, size right, and let the bots buy your fear.

— The Crypto Macro Dispatch | 11 June 2025

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