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- Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #37
Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #37
Edge of the Barrel 🛢️
🎉 Leaked video from BTC Prague afterparty
📉📈 Saylor on CNBC: “BTC’s heading to $180K, dipping to $140K — and the panic will be legendary.”
🔥 Bitcoin flirts with a 100k line
🇫🇷 French firm Sequans drops $384M to kick off its Bitcoin treasury play
📊 Metaplanet likely just passed Hut 8 in BTC holdings — closing in on Tesla, but still waiting on the tracker to catch up
🧃 VanEck teases a Solana ETF this summer
💼 Secretary of Commerce or King of Dips?
The Hormuz Panic That Wasn’t
The weekend served up a perfect storm: U.S. cruise-missile strikes inside Iran, Tehran’s parliament hinting it could seal off the Strait of Hormuz, and crypto cascading to $98 000 before snapping back above six figures.
Yet by the Asian Monday open, Bitcoin printed $102 000, S&P futures ticked green and crude oil cooled.
Below is a deep-dive debrief: what really moved, why markets ultimately shrugged, and—most important—how to position for the week ahead.
1️⃣ Weekend Tape-Bomb Timeline
UTC Time | Headline | Immediate Price Reaction |
|---|---|---|
Fri 22:30 | U.S. Air Force strikes Iranian missile facilities | BTC → $98 k (-8 %), WTI +4 % |
Sat AM | Iran’s Majlis votes to consider blocking Hormuz | Oil futures gap to $77, ETH sells to $2140 |
Sat PM | Unverified “Hormuz mined” rumors on CT | Panic bids on stables, alt-coins nuke 10–30% |
Sun 18:00 | No physical shipping disruption; Tehran radio silent | BTC reclaims $100 k |
Mon Asia | China/Russia/Pakistan draft UNSC cease-fire resolution | Risk-on – NQ +0.6 %, BTC $102 k |
Lesson: Headlines move price only if large players act. From Friday to Sunday, order-flow data (Futures OI, spot CVD) showed retail selling into high-frequency bid walls while funds stayed net-long.
2️⃣ Bitcoin Technical State of Play
Time-Frame | Indicator | Status | Take-away |
|---|---|---|---|
Monthly | 100 k breakout-retest | ✔ 3rd green candle | Cycle remains intact while > $90k |
Weekly | Money-Line | Bright-green (bullish) | Trend traders stay net-long |
Daily | 98 k capitulation wick | Filled & reclaimed | “Event risk” absorbed by smart money |
Actionable Insight:
Add on dips into 100–105 k demand with partial size and hard stop < $90 k.
Only hedge aggressively on a daily close below $96 k.
Money-Line = MA stack + OBV + funding sentiment.
3️⃣ Strait of Hormuz — How Real Is the Threat?
Metric | Data | Implication |
|---|---|---|
Global oil via Hormuz | ≈ 20 % | True choke-point… if blocked |
China’s oil reliant on Hormuz | ~50 % | Beijing would lean hard on Tehran not to close it |
Europe via Hormuz | 15 % | EU is the primary loser; US & China have alternatives |
Tanker insurance (Mon) | +2% premium | Minimal—market pricing low probability of closure |
Key Take-aways for Traders
Watch shipping data, not Twitter. Real-time AIS tanker feeds (e.g., FleetMon) will flash red long before crypto CT doom posts.
Oil > $90 is the canary. A decisive break of 2024 highs ($89–$90 WTI) would confirm physical stress → expect risk-off and USD bid.
Until then, Hormuz headlines = noise; treat dips as liquidity gifts.
4️⃣ Alt-coin Temperature Check
Bitcoin dominance printed a fresh cycle high; that alone means no full alt-season yet.
Still, rotation trades exist.
Bucket | Name | Current Setup | Trading Plan |
|---|---|---|---|
Momentum Leaders | HYPE, HLP (Hyperliquid) | New ATHs, rising OI | Trail tight stops, scale partials into strength |
Contenders | SOL, SUI | Need breakout vs ETH | Accumulate on BTC-led dips; invalidate on weekly close vs ETH lows |
Laggards | MATIC, ADA | Down-trend vs BTC & ETH | Avoid until money-line flips |
Lesson: Strong horses keep running. Rotating out of leaders too early is the #1 retail mistake.
5️⃣ Macro Drivers on Deck
Event | Date | Market Bias |
|---|---|---|
FOMC – Powell presser | Wed 18 June | Dovish hints (July cut pre-signalled) = alt relief |
U.S. CPI / PPI | 12 June | Soft print → weak USD → BTC up |
G7 Finance Ministers (oil-price cap talk) | 14 June | Hawkish energy stance could spike WTI |
6️⃣ Institutional & Treasury Flow
Metaplanet (Tokyo): added 1 111 BTC, now 11 111 BTC—larger than Coinbase treasury.
MicroStrategy: Saylor teased a “bigger orange dot” buy—watch for 15 k+ BTC filing.
Ancient Coins: 566 BTC/day now age past 10 years vs 450 BTC newly mined → secular supply crunch intensifies.
Actionable Insight:
Allocate a structural position to mining-equity beta (MARA, HIVE, CLSK). Profits surge when BTC > $100 k and energy costs lag.
7️⃣ Security PSA — Fake Hardware Wallets
A TikTok “discount Ledger” wiped a user for $6.5 m.
Checklist before you shill a wallet to friends:
Buy direct from manufacturer (no Amazon, no “factory-sealed” e-Bay deals).
Initialize seeds yourself; never trust pre-generated cards.
Verify firmware hash on first boot.
8️⃣ Strategy Cheat-Sheet (This Week)
Scenario | Prob. | Positioning |
|---|---|---|
Hormuz calm, Fed hints cut | 60 % | Long BTC, overweight ETH & SOL; 1–3× grid bots on majors (Pionex) |
Hormuz partial disruption | 25 % | Hedge 30 % book with short ETH perpetuals; rotate into oil miners, keep BTC core |
Full blockade / U.S.–Iran hot war | 15 % | Reduce alts to near-zero, hold physical USD & BTC cold-storage; expect 20–30 % drawdown first, V-reversal later |
9️⃣ The Builder’s Edge
Robot plumbers are still years away. If markets scare you, remember:
Trades may fail; trade skills never do.
The contractor who renovates your mining shed on time is safer from AI displacement than half of Wall Street.
TL;DR
$98 k washout was retail fear, not trend change.
100 k–105 k remains prime dip zone while weekly money-line glows green.
Alt-season resumes only after BTC.D peaks—watch July rate cut for trigger.
Strait-of-Hormuz is the headline to track, but shipping data & oil will give the real signal.
Potential of rate cuts and money printing ahead.
Keep stacking sats, secure your keys properly, and ignore click-bait blitzkriegs.
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