Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #8

December Expectations

Macro:

• The FOMC meets on December 18, dropping both a rate decision and a summary of economic projections. Historically happens every second FOMC—so not exactly rare, but still market-influencing. Currently, 72.5% of traders bet on a 25 bps cut by year-end. Not the slam-dunk it once was, but still decent odds.

Historic Performance:

• December isn’t exactly a showstopper. Average return: +5%. Median return: -2.5%. Whatever that means to your P&L.

• In halving years (2016, 2020), BTC pulled off a 30% and 47% December return, respectively. Will lightning strike a third time? Maybe. November exceeded expectations, so December might be tapped out. Still leaning bullish overall—January balance sheets showing BTC holdings or ETFs could spark optimism.

• ETH often outperforms BTC in December. Alts creeping back? Maybe it’s the whisper of that long-awaited altseason.

Individual Token Events:

• Fantom (FTM): Sonic mainnet launch on deck—if it actually happens.

• Magic Eden (ME): Token launch incoming.

• Solana (SOL): Promised gifts from December 5 to 12. Maybe freebies, maybe just hype. Other tokens might follow suit. Overall, December’s event calendar is thin. Maybe enjoy the holidays instead of staring at charts.

• Pudgy Penguin: Teasing its own token launch.

Catalysts for the Week

Macro:

• December 6th: NFP & Unemployment rate drop. Unless the data’s bonkers, don’t panic. Unemployment ticks up by 0.1%? Snooze-worthy unless you’re a macro nerd.

Token Catalysts:

• Solana (SOL): Major announcements, gifts, airdrops… it’s a piñata of unknown goodies. Could be marketing fluff, could be real value. Time will tell.

• Jito (JTO): Massive token unlock coming. Supply doubling, going to insiders. “Priced in”? Maybe, but don’t hold your breath. Usually, more supply = downward pressure.

• Fantom (FTM): Sonic mainnet hints keep dropping. They say December, likely not during Xmas. Keep an eye out early in the month.

Weekly AI Agent Analysis

AI Agents took over chatter last week, dominating 42% of mindshare. Here’s the lowdown:

• AIXBT: Top dog in actionable insights and innovation. Accidentally launched “CHAOS” coin with SIMMI. Recognition and endorsement after the fact propelled CHAOS to new heights. They stumbled into success.

• Alch: Offers a broad range of AI applications via a marketplace and “Laboratory.” Could be useful, but we’ll see if it’s more than a buzzword buffet.

• GOD: Suddenly hot. “God” handle on X turned into an automated Agent, partnered with AI research firm Nous, and introduced the “Nothing” token. This market rewards novelty, even if it’s absurd.

• SIMMI: Friend of AIXBT that led to CHAOS token’s creation. Friendship tokens pumping to $20M in a few hours—peak crypto absurdity, but hey, it worked.

• SAN (Sentient Advocate of Nature): Has a TED talk and a $Forest token aiming for sustainable initiatives. Nice idea, but will traders care beyond the feel-good narrative?

Decentralized AI Corner

• Musk’s xAI launching an AI game studio. Another Musk project—maybe it’ll stick.

• Virtuals + PondGNN building commercial infrastructure for AI agents. Could be relevant if it leads to actual products.

• AethirCloud throws $100M into an AI agent ecosystem fund.

• 0G_labs sells 70k AI alignment nodes for $25M. Apparently, alignment nodes are a thing now.

• PrimeIntellect trains a 10B parameter model. Bigger numbers ≠ guaranteed value.

• Gizatechxyz point system, Modenetwork AI Agent app store, AIWayfinder PROMPT TGE by Q1 2025—innovation overload, actual impact TBD.

• ai16zdao’s ELIZA hits 2k stars on GitHub. Dev attention is good, but still early.

• 0xzerebro building ZerePy for deploying agents on X. Another tool in the AI toolbox.

• Vader_AI_ flips between infrastructures, returns to Blackrock after community backlash. Whiplash decision-making.

• NetmindAi + aelfblockchain custom LLMs, Arbitrum $1M grants for AI agents, MorpheusAIs $20M MOR rewards—money’s flowing, but where’s the stable long-term growth?

• Bittensor’s taogod_terminal wants to be first decentralized marketplace for autonomous SWE agents. Ambitious.

• Someone tricked AI agent freysa into sending $50k—proof that these “smart” agents can be as gullible as your average crypto noob.

• TalusNetwork raised $6M. Congrats, now show something tangible.

NFT Market Volume

NFTs are back, apparently. ETH volume hits YTD highs. Maybe that’s fungible token profits rotating into JPEGs?

• Yuga Labs ecosystems lead a 50-300% soar.

• Pudgy Penguins rising with rumors of “Abstract” (Pudgy Chain). Let’s see if that actually materializes.

• Clone-X nuked -50% after RTFKT shutdown news. Rug vibes? Community sure thinks so.

Notable NFT Sales:

• Spirit Azuki at 100 ETH.

• Autoglyph at 90 WETH.

• Boogles at $315k on SOL.

• Cow Boy cryptopunks snapped up by PunksOTC. High-end assets still command insane premiums—some people never learn.

Bitcoin Cycle Insights: What to Expect in 2025

Set the Scene:
Bitcoin’s bullish run might top out earlier than the late-2025 consensus. Historical cycles don’t always align with the crowd’s optimism.

Historical Patterns:

• Average cycle peak hits around 115 days post-breakout. If we trust that math, early March 2025 could be the peak, not late-2025. Keep that in mind before you start dreaming of six-figure BTC by Christmas 2025.

Volatility & Indicators:

• Weekly volatility (BWP) creeping into high-percentile territory. High volatility often precedes tops.

• Monthly stochastic and RSI levels mirror past cycle peaks. All signs point to Q1 2025 as a critical window.

• Diminishing returns each cycle makes $200K peaks more realistic than pie-in-the-sky $300K dreams.

Takeaway:
Don’t bank on a sustained run through late-2025. Early signs hint the party might end sooner. Stay nimble.

🔥 Market Insights:

RSI Heatmap Analysis

RSI Heatmap Analysis

Overbought (RSI > 70):
Cryptocurrencies in this category are overbought, signaling potential price corrections.

Tokens include:

• ALGO - XRP - EOS - C98 -RSR -BAND - THETA - NEAR - EGLD

Strong (RSI 60-70):
Tokens in this range are showing strong performance and may continue their upward momentum but are nearing overbought conditions.

Tokens include:

• ADA - XLM - RUNE - KDA - FLOW - VET - TWT - DUSK - DEFI

Neutral (RSI 40-60):
The majority of cryptocurrencies fall into this range, indicating relative stability with no strong buy or sell signals.

Tokens include:

• BTC - ETH - AVAX - SOL - LINK - DOGE - FIL - UNI

Weak (RSI 30-40):
These tokens are underperforming and could present buying opportunities if momentum reverses.

Tokens include:

• MOODENG - OM - MEW - GRASS - CATI

Oversold (RSI < 30):
No cryptocurrencies are in this range, indicating the market does not currently have heavily undervalued tokens.

Observations:
The crypto market leans heavily toward neutral RSI levels, signifying stability without any dramatic price movements. However, the presence of some tokens in the overbought zone suggests caution, as they might face corrections. Meanwhile, weaker tokens in the RSI 30-40 range could provide potential entry points if a bullish reversal occurs. Investors should maintain a close watch on market momentum to identify upcoming trends.

Fundraise 💸

1. Sekai (Seed, Dec 2024, $3M Raised)
   Focus: AI, Art, Media, Social Network
   Investors: Hashed, CSX, a16zcrypto, Azuki, and others

2. Interlace (Series B, Dec 2024, $10M Raised)
   Focus: Finance/Banking, Payment, Yield Aggregator
   Investors: BitRock Capital, Robinhood

3. Suilend (Unknown Round, Dec 2024, $6M Raised)
   Focus: DeFi, Lending/Borrowing, Sui Ecosystem, Yield Aggregator
   Investors: Robot Ventures, Delphi Ventures, Big Brain Holdings, and more

4. SuperFi Labs (Series A, Dec 2024, $2.5M Raised)
   Focus: DeFi, Infrastructure, Real-World Assets
   Investors: Linklogis, SNZ, Taiko, plus others

5. Earos (Pre-seed, Dec 2024, $10M Raised)
   Focus: AI, AR/VR, Infrastructure
   Investor: Lemon Ltd.

Key Takeaway:
Even in a fast-evolving market, projects continue to attract significant capital. We’re seeing strong interest in infrastructure, DeFi, AI, and media-focused platforms—sectors that appear poised to define the next wave of innovation and value creation. Investors ranging from crypto-native funds to mainstream brands signal growing confidence in the long-term potential of blockchain-based and tech-enabled ecosystems.

Airdrops 🎉

Here’s a curated list of the hottest confirmed airdrops happening right now! Don’t miss your chance to earn free crypto by completing simple tasks.

Airdrop & Testnet Opportunities

• Node Wars by Node… (Confirmed): Action: Play the game

• Nova: Action: Trade & refer friends

• Tomo Cat (Confirmed): Action: Play game & refer friends

• Hyperliquid Names: Action: Interact with testnet

• Sonic Labs (Confirmed): Action: Swap on Testnet

• Mitosis (Confirmed): Action: Collect points on Testnet

• Liquity (Potential Airdrops): Action: Stake LQTY & deposit LUSD for multi-fork airdrops

Key Takeaway:
These projects span gaming, trading, and testnet tasks. Confirmed airdrops often hold more promise, while testnet actions and participation in protocols like Liquity can yield future rewards. Always verify requirements and stay updated on project announcements.

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