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- Unhosted Weekly: Crypto MarketOverview #38
Unhosted Weekly: Crypto MarketOverview #38
🌋 Volcano Mode: BTC Keeps Erupting
📈 Long-term Bitcoin holders just scooped up 800 000 BTC in 30 days—a record-breaking net inflow
🔥 Bitcoin is hovering around $107,631
🚀 Strategy added 4,980 BTC for $531.9 M, bringing its total holdings to 597,325 BTC
🔮 The Fed has a 94% chance of cutting rates on September 17, 2025, per the FedWatch Tool
✨ BTC has overtaken Google to become the 6th-largest asset by market cap
July’s Setup: Bitcoin Poised for a Fresh Price-Discovery Run
Macro’s a mess, politicians are coming for your wallet, and Bitcoin is 10 feet from breaking the final-boss resistance.
Strap in.
(Macro-on-chain, alt-flow & policy risks — full-stack briefing)
TL;DR – Key Signals
Theme | Data Point | Why It Matters | Playbook |
|---|---|---|---|
BTC elasticity | Weekly money-line stays bright-green until $91 900 | Upside trend intact; current print $107 500 | Buy dips 100–105 k, hard stop < 92 k |
S&P ↔ Crypto lockstep | New ATH in S&P 500 & Nasdaq | Risk-on bid lifts crypto beta | Watch equities – they’re the “artillery” behind BTC |
Dominance ceiling | BTC.D needs close < 63 % for broad alt season | Still at cycle highs | Treat alt pumps as rotations, not macro season (yet) |
EU “savings grab” chatter | ECB officials float retail-capital “mobilisation” | Capital-control risk climbs | Cold-store a BTC hedge; diversify outside EU banking |
NYC electoral zeitgeist | Mayoral front-runner touts wealth taxes | More U.S. redistribution talk | Expect higher U.S. fiscal deficits → long BTC |
Institutional buy-pressure | MetaPlanet now 13 k BTC (Top-5 holder) | Corporate-treasury doctrine spreading in Asia | Front-run public-company bids; follow 13-Ds |
BlackRock fee windfall | IBIT ≈ $186 m/yr, > S&P ETF | Wall Street all-incentive to market Bitcoin | More sales desks = more inflows; hold core allocation |
1. Bitcoin’s Technical Map — “One Boss Left”
BTC has followed a rinse-repeat script all cycle:
Pump → hit resistance → 2-4 months chop → break → repeat
We’re now testing the last horizontal band (~$108–110 k) that capped prices since March.
Once reclaimed on a weekly close, chart space is empty until the 130–150 k cluster.
Trend Guards
Weekly money-line turns red sub-$91.9 k — bearish only there.
Daily flipped green on 5 June; gives early warning if we stall.
Actionable
Scale longs on every dip into 100–105 k; risk 92 k.
Trail half-size if we tag 125 k quickly (parabola watch).
2. Wall-Street Tailwind: Stocks at ATH with Minimal Fed Easing
S&P 500 broke to record highs despite rates > 5 %.
Fed has pre-signalled a July cut; liquidity impulse is still ahead.
Translation: If equities can rally in tight conditions, a pivot should super-charge beta assets — crypto first in line.
3. Why July Could Surprise Bulls (Seasonality Myth-busting)
Concern | Counter-fact |
|---|---|
“Summer lull — always bearish” | 2020 & 2023 both printed July breakouts after months of consolidation. |
“Election uncertainty” | Historical study: election Q3 often bullish as parties promise stimulus. |
“Halving is priced in” | Prior cycles show the real impulse 6–12 m after halving once supply shock filters through exchanges. |
Watch full vid here - https://x.com/AltcoinDaily/status/1939308119152054546
4. Altcoin Radar — Wait for Dominance Break, But Pockets of Alpha
Asset | Why it matters | Quick take |
|---|---|---|
Solana (SOL) | Back above $150 after a lethargic Q2 | Needs $188 for confirmed breakout. |
PENGU / “Pango” | Pudgy-Penguins-flavoured Solana memecoin | Testing May high; breakout could sling-shot to new ATHs. |
RLUSD | Ripple stablecoin | Supply +47 % in June; now DIFC-green-lit. |
Theta (THETA) | Deepin / GPU marketplace | EdgeCloud Hybrid Beta launched 25 June, marrying cloud GPUs with 30 k edge nodes. |
Leaders:
HYPE / HLP — new ATHs; keep trailing stops.
SOL — weekly engulfing, needs 188 USDT to flip money-line green.
Rotation Trades:
Solana meme sub-ecosystem (Moonshot launchpad) erupted Friday.
Example: MonkeyPhone (PHONE) → 10 × from Chinese whale tracking; still micro-cap, high-risk.
Pengu (PENG) — rounded-bottom + reclaim of May highs = potential fresh price discovery if BTC.D wobbles.
Rule: Until BTC.D < 63 %, treat every alt surge as a tactical trade, not a portfolio core.
5. Macro Wildcards
Event / Risk | Window | Market Tell | Positioning |
|---|---|---|---|
Fed July cut size | 31 July FOMC | CME FedWatch; DXY | Bigger cut → short USD, add alt exposure |
Strait-of-Hormuz chatter | Ongoing | WTI > $90 = real shutdown | Hedge 30 % via oil miners if triggered |
EU “Savings Union” draft | Q4 2025 | Commission white-paper | Accelerate cold-storage stacking; EU bank diversification |
6. Policy & Politics — Why Bitcoin’s Insurance Premium Is Rising
Europe
ECB president Lagarde & finance chiefs openly discuss “mobilising” dormant retail deposits for green-defence spending.
Lesson: If lawmakers talk about your cash like public property, hold an asset they can’t rehypothecate.
United States
New York City’s socialist front-runner advocates heavier wealth taxes; national figures nod along.
Redistribution = larger deficits = faster USD debasement. Bitcoin’s adoption thesis strengthens.
7. Institutional Flows & On-Chain Supply
MetaPlanet (Tokyo) added 108 m USD in BTC → 13 k stack (#5 globally).
Ancient coins (> 10 yrs) now age into illiquid supply 566 BTC/day vs 450 newly mined.
BlackRock IBIT fee revenue beats its flagship S&P fund — a first for any crypto product.
Practical Edge: Shadow large-cap treasury wallets (Arkham tags) for accumulation zones; whales do the work signalling fair value.
8. Strategy Grid (Next 30 Days)
Macro Backdrop | BTC Target | Alt Bias | Hedges |
|---|---|---|---|
Baseline: Stocks grind higher, July cut priced | 130 k–150 k | Select leaders only | Short DXY |
Hormuz partial block (oil 95–100) | 100 k retest | Reduce alts 30 % | Long WTI, short ETH/BTC |
Parabolic blow-off (vertical weekly) | 180 k+ then sharp wick | Exit 60 % to stables | No hedge — raise cash |
EU capital-control law tabled | > 110 k but FX stress | Rotate into offshore exchanges | Physical USD, multisig |
10. Closing Lessons & To-Dos
Charts first, headlines later. Thursday’s dump to 98 k was retail fear — trend never flipped.
Have a Bitcoin safety valve before politicians target deposits or net-worth brackets.
Prepare for parabolic velocity. Final stages move fastest; rehearse an exit ladder, not just entries.
Skill > Cycle. Whether price booms or policy bites, owning mobile skills (or a tradesman’s license) beats guessing tops.
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