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- Unhosted Weekly: Crypto MarketOverview #39
Unhosted Weekly: Crypto MarketOverview #39
We are going to win so much, you'll get tired of winning!
TL;DR + Weekly Headlines
Signal | Take-Away | Action Idea |
|---|---|---|
“Big-Beautiful Bill” adds $5 Tn to U.S. debt | First true liquidity wave since COVID | Risk-on across the board – be long BTC & high-beta majors |
Highest weekly close ever for Bitcoin | Breakout flag pointing at 130–150 k | Buy pullbacks into 100–105 k; hard stop < 92 k |
Equities at fresh ATHs before Fed even cuts | Stocks = artillery behind BTC | Track S&P momentum to front-run crypto bids |
Elon forms “American Party”, calls fiat hopeless | Political tailwind for BTC adoption narrative | Expect policy chatter to stay Bitcoin-friendly |
Alt-season? BTC.D must close < 63 % | Not yet, but Solana pockets hot | Trade rotations (Bonk, PHONE) – don’t marry bags |
Solana economics | Only 3 % additional supply next 12 mths vs. 17-30 % on many L2s | Fear-of-unlock headlines ≠ data – size accordingly |
💵 Stablecoins now make up 1.1% of the entire U.S. dollar supply (M2)
🔝 Roger Ver set several records yesterday by moving 80,000 BTC ($8.64B) from addresses dormant for 14 years!
⚪️ Coin Days Destroyed: $419.95M — second highest in history
⚪️ Spent 10-year-old coins (80,014 BTC) — all-time record
⚪️ SOPR (1.177) — highest in the last 10 years
🔗 Etherscan announced HyperEvmScan, a blockchain explorer for HyperEVM
💰 Metaplanet is sitting on $171M in unrealized profit from its Bitcoin portfolio.
PS Micro Strategy has 22 Billion in unrealized profit. :)
🪙 Bit Digital, the company building an ETH treasury under the slogan “There is no second best” (a phrase originally used by Michael Saylor about BTC), has swapped all of its BTC for ETH, bringing its holdings to 100,603 ETH.
And they’re not stopping there — they’ve already raised $172M for their next round of ETH buys.
🔽 Bitcoin trading volumes have dropped to a yearly low 😑
🔻 Spot volumes: $5.02B
🔻 Futures volumes: $31.2B
It’s vacation season, but Bitcoin is holding around $109,000
The Week Liquidity Returned: Why Bitcoin’s Next Parabolic Leg May Have Just Begun
Bitcoin just printed its strongest weekly close ever and is coiling in a textbook bull flag beneath $108 k resistance. Under the hood, a perfect storm is forming:
Trigger | Why It Matters | Immediate Take-away |
|---|---|---|
$5 T “Big Beautiful Bill” | Fiscal impulse on par with 2020 stimulus—tax cuts + fresh deficit spending. | Liquidity sluice gates are opening; treat dips as reload zones. |
Bond-Market Revolt | Yields spiking → global allocators dumping Treasuries. | Rotation flows to non-sovereign stores of value (BTC, gold). |
S&P 500 & Nasdaq at ATHs | Risk-on leadership historically drags BTC into price discovery. | Maintain equity exposure; hedge with BTC rather than cash. |
Actionable Macro Checklist
Track T-Bill auctions—failed bids = continued bond outflows → bullish BTC.
Watch DXY—a sustained break below 104 accelerates the rotation trade.
Monitor Fed balance-sheet delta—first uptick confirms stimulus leakage into banks.
Chartbook: Where Price Meets Liquidity
Time-Frame | Current Bias | Rotation Plan |
|---|---|---|
Weekly BTC | Bullish while > $91 900 | Long BTC; hedge only on weekly close < $92 k. |
Daily BTC | Bullish since 5 Jun | Add on tests of $100 k–$102 k flag base. |
BTC Dominance | Up-trend; 69 % → 63 % trigger | Rotate 20–30 % into alts once weekly close < 63 %. |
S&P 500 | New highs | Keep 50 %+ equity allocation; add on 5 % pull-backs. |
Alpha: In every prior cycle, BTC’s vertical “blow-off” began 1–3 weeks after a fresh SPX all-time high and a Fed liquidity uptick. We now have the first condition; watch for the second.
Altcoin Radar
1. Solana (SOL)
Catalyst: 90 % of on-chain tokenised-stock volume now settles on SOL ; network fees stay < 0.01 USD thanks to local fee markets.
What to Watch: Break and weekly close > $188 (money-line flip) = green-light for $250–$275 push.
Action: Accumulate 170–185 USD; stop below $158 (last swing low).
2. Bonk (BONK)
Catalyst: New “BonkPad” launchpad diverts fees into BONK buy-and-burn—essentially an on-chain stock-buyback engine.
Structure: 55 % weekly impulse broke down-trend line.
Action: Chase only on retests of 0.000021–0.000023; target prior ATH (0.000034).
3. High-Beta Mids (HYPER, CELESTIA)
Catalyst: Strongest volume/price divergence among L1s; early beneficiaries when BTC.D turns.
Action: Scale 5 % starter positions now; set alerts for BTC.D < 63 % to add.
Token-Unlock Reality
Project | 12-mo New Supply | % of Circulating | Take-away |
|---|---|---|---|
Solana | +3 % | Low | Dilution negligible—ignore the FUD. |
Sui | +17 % | Medium | Price can absorb if TVL grows ≥20 %. |
Optimism | +31 % | High | Fade rallies into heavy unlock months. |
Actionable Unlock Play
Short-term swing: Two days before large OP unlocks, short OP / long ETH basket; unwind 24 h post-unlock.
Medium term: Over-weight SOL on any unlock-FUD dips—supply schedule already discounted.
Tactical Playbook: Next 60 Days
Market Move | Execution | Hedge |
|---|---|---|
Weekly close > $110 k | Convert 15 % USDT to BTC; sell 25 % of stable-coin yields for SOL | Short DXY mini-futures. |
$100 k liquidity flush | Buy Mar-2025 0.75 delta BTC calls; | 10 % cash in short-term T-Bills (4-week). |
BTC.D breakdown < 63 % | Shift 30 % BTC to high-beta alts (SOL, BONK, HYPER, niche memes) | Keep ETH/BTC long for base-layer hedge. |
Vertical blow-off (180 k+) | Trail 1-week ATR stop; ladder-sell 10 % tranches every +20 % | 30 % portfolio cash; rotate to GLD & 4-week bills. |
Key Take-aways
Liquidity drives price. $5 T of fresh deficit spending dwarfs any single Fed hike.
Charts front-run headlines. BTC printed ATH weekly close before the bill became law—follow the tape.
Self-sovereignty over jurisdictions. EU & NYC politicians openly eye retail savings; Bitcoin is exit liquidity for you, not for them.
Parabola ≠ Bubble—until it ends. 2017 & 2021 doubled in weeks before topping. No vertical ramp yet = runway left.
Have a plan before the wick. Automate (grid-bots), hedge (DXY shorts, T-Bills) and trail stops now, not after BTC gaps $15 k.
Bottom Line:
The printer’s back, stocks are already sniffing it out, and Bitcoin is perched under final resistance. History says the steep part of the curve arrives when macro liquidity turns—exactly what $5 TRILLION of fresh deficit is designed to do. Position accordingly… before price discovers the new paradigm.
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