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- Unhosted Weekly: Crypto MarketOverview #40
Unhosted Weekly: Crypto MarketOverview #40
The Orange Standard 🍊
🚀 BTC just poked its head above $123 K!
💵 Strategy’s Bitcoin stash just blasted past the $70 B milestone for the very first time!
🏆 Bitcoin is now the 5th-largest asset in the world, surpassing Amazon, Silver, and Google.
🎉 Today is BNB's birthday!
💸 Digital asset investment products see $3.7B in weekly inflows, the second-largest on record.
🔗 Bank of America lists Bitcoin as the best-performing currency of 2025.
Crypto Market Pulse – July 2025
From textbook break-outs to a looming $5 trn liquidity wave, the board is lighting up. Here’s how to position before the next leg.
1. Bitcoin: Welcome to Price-Discovery Mode
Technical trigger | Why it matters | Positioning cue |
|---|---|---|
Weekly all-time-high close | Seven-month coil finally released. | Swing longs remain valid while $120 k holds. |
Bull-flag break | Text-book continuation structure. | Core target $150 k (measured move ≈ 25 %). |
Inverse head-and-shoulders | Confirms multi-month accumulation. | Secondary target $146–152 k. |
2.618 Fib extension | Few obstacles between $120 k → $150 k. | Trail stops just below $119 k; add on dips into former resistance. |
Actionable alpha
Size-down leverage above $148–152 k – first serious profit-taking zone.
Replace laddered limit sells with OCOs (order-cancels-other) to avoid getting wicked out of an accelerating parabola.
Hold a small cash buffer; post-breakout volatility is a feature, not a bug.
2. Macro Switch-On: “Big Beautiful Bill” = Big Beautiful Liquidity
$5 trn fresh debt: largest single expansion since the COVID bazooka.
Net effect: M2 climbs to new highs; real yields drift lower despite Fed inaction.
OTC desks dry: corporate treasuries (MicroStrategy, MetaPlanet) now lift directly on-exchange, pushing slippage onto screens.
Actionable alpha
When | What to do | Why |
|---|---|---|
Now – Q3 2025 | Run a net-long book across risk assets. | Liquidity leads price; fiscal taps are open. |
Every new Treasury refunding | Check BTC response within 48 h. | Lack of supply = quadratic price effect (à la Fred Krueger). |
If 10-year > 4.75 % | Hedge with short-dated puts. | Sign of funding stress; temporary crypto pullbacks follow. |
3. Altcoin Rotation: Engines Igniting
Fastest momentum flips
Ticker | Catalyst | Immediate level |
|---|---|---|
HYPE | Breakaway from seven-month range | Tagging price discovery – scale out above 0.0009 BTC |
SUI | Third attempt at $4.00 ceiling | Monitor hourly close > $4.05 for trend continuation |
BONK | Launchpad revenue → buyback & burn | Next supply wall US$0.000055 |
XRP | Weekly money-line flip + stable-coin traction | Fresh weekly long; invalidate < $0.53 |
IOTA | MoveVM main-net + new DeFi suite | Room to 0.000013 BTC (200-WMA) |
ALT season is here - 196 tickers flipped bullish vs USD, 148 vs BTC last week
Portfolio map (suggested weights)
50 % BTC core
20 % ETH (post-ETF inflows)
15 % High-beta majors (SOL, SUI, HYPE)
10 % Narrative trades (IOTA, BONK, PENGU) 5 % Dry powder Rebalance weekly until BTC dominance < 63 %.
4. Solana Corner: Throughput Meets Real Revenue
Theme | Latest data | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
Tokenised stocks | 90 % of all on-chain equity volume now routes via SOL. | Institutions interact without CEX custody. |
BONK-Launchpad | 29 k SOL bought for burns (annualised 156 k SOL). | Revenue recycles back to holders – unlike Pump.fun. |
DePIN / GPU cloud | Theta EdgeCloud & Hivemapper both migrate worker payouts to SOL. | Cash-flow protocols anchor treasury demand. |
Key SOL levels
$188: turns weekly trend decisively bullish vs ETH.
$230: window to new ATH; layer on optionality (long dated calls) if broken.
5. Ethereum Roadmap: Institutional Story vs. Builder Reality
EF “Scalable L1” blog: commits to more blob-space, statelessness and quantum-safe signatures—but still centred on L2 roll-ups.
Kathy Wood calls it “the right move”; TradFi loves the narrative.
Builder push-back: Monad & other Move-based chains courting EVM devs with base-layer throughput (no separate sequencers).
Actionable alpha
Trade the narrative: overweight ETH until spot-ETF inflows plateau.
Build on chains where users live: SOL, SUI, upcoming Monad; simpler UX wins the cycle.
For ETH gas exposure, accumulate blob-heavy L2 sequencer tokens only on dips; they’ll underperform once base-layer fees stay low.
6. Policy & Regulation Watch
Jurisdiction | What’s cooking | Hedge |
|---|---|---|
EU / ECB | Floating idea of redirecting retail savings into “strategic projects”. | Keep > 50 % stack in self-custody, outside EU banks. |
UK | BoE warns against bank-issued stable-coins. | Diversify into on-chain USD stables (USDC, USDT, PayPal USD). |
Switzerland | Green party wants 50 % wealth tax on > CHF 50 m. | Consider multi-sig with foreign co-signers; residency flexibility. |
7. Key Levels & Calendar
Asset | Breakout level | Pull-back buy zone | Catalyst to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
BTC | $128 k 4-h close | $119–121 k | U.S. CPI – 19 Jun |
ETH | $3 650 | $3 300 | Spot-ETF flows (weekly) |
SOL | $188 | $157–162 | Firedancer Dev-Net Q3 |
SUI | $4.05 | $3.55 | Tencent partnership rumours |
XRP | Weekly close above $3 | $2.75 | Ripple stable-coin TVL milestones |
9. TL;DR Action List
Stay long BTC until weekly closes < $120 k.
Rotate 30 % of performance capital into majors flipping vs BTC (SOL, SUI, XRP).
Deploy grid-bots on high-range, high-narrative alts (e.g., COOKIE, FORT).
Keep 5 % cash—hyper-volatile breakouts still offer flash-fill bargains.
Monitor policy headlines; self-custody and jurisdictional optionality are no longer optional.
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